Driven by macro factors, the most-traded SHFE tin contract rose slightly during the night session [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Morning Tin News on May 21, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) fluctuated upward during the night session and then maintained high-level fluctuations at 267,000 yuan/mt, closing at 267,850 yuan/mt, up 1.16% from the previous trading day. Total open interest reached 27,300 lots.

Macro: (1) Policy impact remains unclear. US Fed officials reiterated the need to "wait" (neutral). (2) Lei Jun: Xiaomi's Xuanjie O1 has entered mass production. (bullish ★) (3) Xi Jinping: To advance Chinese-style modernization, we must continue to excel in manufacturing. (bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - It is reported that Japan is considering accepting US tariff reductions rather than exemptions. Japanese tariff negotiators will visit the US for the third time this Friday, with a possible fourth visit this month. (neutral)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Alphamin Resources Corp.'s Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 mt of metal tin between April 15 and May 11, 2025, achieving the expected processing recovery rate. Tin production commenced by processing raw ore stockpiles from the mine, initially from the Mpama North plant, followed by the restart of the Mpama South plant on April 19, 2025. Underground ore blasting and transportation began in the last week of April 2025, while the mine development rate also increased. Since the restart of the mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates for export was shipped by truck on May 9, 2025. (bullish ★) (2) Demand side: After the Labour Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed operations, and there was some release of low-price restocking demand, but high-price transactions remained sluggish. (bearish ★)

Spot Market: SHFE tin fluctuated at highs during the day. Smelters held back cargoes, resulting in limited actual transactions. Downstream players generally believed that current prices were too high. Weak end-use consumption led to low purchase willingness, with a wait-and-see sentiment dominating the market.